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Who will win LIV Golf Mexico? Odds, best bets, picks for event at El Camaleón Mayakoba Golf Course

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LIV Golf returns this weekend with its first event of the 2023 season at El Camaleón Mayakoba in Mexico. Picking up where it left off in 2022, the controversial tour’s inaugural event of the calendar year will feature a star-studded field, beautiful tropical vistas, and of course, a massive purse of $25 million. Let’s break down the betting odds for this tournament and detail our best bets to win, place, and prevail head-to-head.

No matter your stance on LIV and its backers, this weekend should certainly provide some entertaining golf. The weather projects to be sunny and 86 degrees every day, and the star-studded field will include Dustin Johnson, Cameron Smith, and Brooks Koepka. The loot won’t be bad, either — the overall prize money for the 2023 LIV tour has been increased by 63 percent to $405 million, with the tour schedule expanding from eight events to 14. That’s quite a way to make a splash for LIV’s inaugural event in Latin America.

For those unfamiliar with LIV Golf’s unique payout structure, here’s what you need to know:

“Each LIV Golf event will have a purse of $25 million — $20 million for the individual event and another $5 million for the team event. The individual winner will take home $4 million, while the winning team adds $3 million ($750,000 per player). So the top-rated player on the top-rated team in a given LIV Golf event would make $4.75 million for a single event.”

The style takes some getting used to, especially for traditional fans of the PGA, but many have welcomed the unique 54-hole, no-cut format — and LIV’s massive payouts — with open arms. And one thing’s for sure: the golfers will be playing to win.

MORE LIV MEXICO: Tee Times, Coverage & Streams | Players & Teams | Full 2023 LIV Schedule

Let’s dive into the odds for this weekend’s LIV season opener and then get to our best bets and expert picks.

LIV Golf Mexico: Odds board for tour’s season opener

Odds via Sports Interaction.

Dustin Johnson +800
Joaquin Niemann +800
Cameron Smith +1000
Abraham Ancer +1100
Paul Casey +1600
Sergio Garcia +1600
Thomas Pieters +1600
Patrick Reed +1800
Talor Gooch +1800
Matthew Wolff +2000
Mito Pereira +2000
Brooks Koepka +2500
Anirban Lahiri +2800
Carlos Ortiz +3300
Harold Varner III +3300
Louis Oosthuizen +3500
Dean Burmester +3500
Branden Grace +3500
Bryson DeChambeau +4000
Brendan Steele +4000
Marc Leishman +4500
Peter Uihlein +5000
Jason Kokrak +5000
Charles Howell III +5000
Bernd Wiesberger +5000
Richard Bland +6000
Henrik Stenson +6000
Kevin Na +6500
Bubba Watson +6500
Eugenio Lopez-chacarra +6600
lan Poulter +6600
Sebastian Munoz +6600
Charl Schwartzel +7000
Lee Westwood +8000
Danny Lee +8000
Matt Jones +9000
Sam Horsfield +10000
Graeme Mcdowell +12500
Cameron Tringale +14000
Pat Perez +15000
Scott Vincent +16000
Martin Kaymer +17500
Phil Mickelson +20000
Sihwan Kim +22500
James Piot +22500
David Puig +25000
Chase Koepka +27500
Jediah Morgan +75000

LIV Golf Mexico: Best Bet

Dustin Johnson (+800)

Yeah, it’s chalky, but as we have learned so often this betting year, betting chalk frequently translates to winning money. Johnson remains one of the best golfers in the world, having compiled a spectacular 2022 highlighted by multiple tournament wins and a unique combination of driving power and accuracy. His biggest win came at LIV’s individual championship — more formally called the LIV Golf Invitational Series individual title — for a whopping $18 million bonus. The guy never seems to feel any kind of pressure, and he’s head and shoulders above the rest of the LIV player pool. 

LIV Golf Mexico: Top value bet

Carlos Ortiz (+3300)

A Guadalajara native, Ortiz has plenty of experience playing El Camaleón. He last played at the gorgeous course at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba in 2021, finishing as the tournament’s runner-up at -19. He has the course knowledge, driving accuracy, and around-the-green skills to come away from this weekend as the first LIV champion of 2023. 

LIV Golf Mexico: Best sleeper

Branden Grace (+3500)

Wouldn’t it be something if Grace won the first LIV event of 2023, the year after he shot a final-round 65 to win LIV’s inaugural event in Portland? Hey, crazier things have happened. Grace has uncanny accuracy — he’s been a fairway-hitting machine his entire professional career — and a quick look at his highlight reel shows you how dominant he can be when he hits his groove. He has plenty of wins in tropical climates, including the 2021 Puerto Rico Open with an eagle-birdie finish. We think Grace once again has enough to make some noise at this event and would at least hunt down a top-20 prop with his name on it. 

LIV Golf Mexico Betting Guide: Course overview

A pristine course originally designed by LIV Golf CEO Greg Norman in 2006, El Cameleón Golf Course measures 7,024 yards in length. The course features picturesque views of the surrounding Caribbean Sea, Mayan jungle, and dense mangroves. It has been referred to as a course that’s friendly to golfers of all abilities, but we’ll just call it a birdie dreamland. El Cameleón only has a few truly long holes, but even those are more geared toward the accurate than the powerful. Golfers with accurate irons and strong around-the-green play will have a leg up on the competition this weekend.

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