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Ohio State vs. Michigan State prediction, odds, time: 2023 Big Ten Tournament picks, best bets by proven model


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On Friday, the Ohio State Buckeyes aim to extend an unexpected run through the 2023 Big Ten Tournament. The No. 13 seed Buckeyes take on the No. 4 seed Michigan State Spartans at United Center. Ohio State is 15-18 overall this season, but the Buckeyes are 4-1 in the last five games, including wins over Wisconsin and Iowa to advance. Michigan State is 19-11 overall and 11-8 in Big Ten play, earning a bye to the quarterfinal.

Tipoff is at 2:30 p.m. ET in Chicago. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Spartans as 4-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 138.5 in the latest Ohio State vs. Michigan State odds. Before locking in any Michigan State vs. Ohio State picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters conference tournament week 76-51 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,200 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now the model has zeroed in on Ohio State vs. Michigan State and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several college basketball odds and betting lines for Michigan State vs. Ohio State:

  • Ohio State vs. Michigan State spread: MSU -4
  • Ohio State vs. Michigan State over/under: 138.5 points
  • Ohio State vs. Michigan State money line: MSU -180, OSU +152
  • OSU: The Buckeyes are 7-15 against the spread in Big Ten games
  • MSU: The Spartans are 10-9 against the spread in Big Ten games
  • Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Why Ohio State can cover

Ohio State picked up impressive wins over Wisconsin and Iowa on back-to-back days, with the Buckeyes potentially peaking at the right time. The Buckeyes also have a breakout player in freshman Brice Sensabaugh, who projects as a first round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. He leads the team with 16.3 points per game this season, and Sensabaugh is shooting 40.5% from 3-point range. Ohio State is in the top 25 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Buckeyes have top-five marks in the Big Ten in both offensive rebound rate (29%) and free throw accuracy (75%). 

Michigan State has the second-worst free throw rate allowed mark in the conference, with bottom-tier marks in steal rate and block rate on defense. On defense, Ohio State blocks 10% of shots attempts, and Michigan State is outside the top 300 nationally in free throw rate over the course of the regular season.

Why Michigan State can cover

Michigan State has clear defensive strengths to go along with elite traits on offense. The Spartans lead the Big Ten in 3-point accuracy allowed (30.7%), with top-five marks in field goal percentage allowed (43.0%), assists allowed (12.0 per game) and defensive rebound rate (75.2%). On the offensive end, the 3-point line is also kind to Michigan State, as the Spartans rank in the top five of the country in shooting 40.1% from beyond the arc. Michigan State is making 41.5% of 3-point attempts against Big Ten opponents, No. 1 in the conference, and also leading the Big Ten with 78.5% free throw shooting. 

Tyson Walker is the team’s leading scorer, putting up 15.4 points per game and shooting 48.7% from 3 in conference games. Joey Hauser leads the team with 7.0 rebounds per game for the full season, and he shoots nearly 46% from long range. In addition to long-range potency, Michigan State has top-five marks in assists (14.1 per game) and field goal percentage (45.5%) in conference games, and the Spartans commit a turnover on fewer than 17% of possessions in 2022-23.

How to make Michigan State vs. Ohio State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 143 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine

So who wins Ohio State vs. Michigan State? And which side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.  

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