The premier event on the PGA TOUR takes place this week at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, and as we’ve come to expect, things are looking a bit wacky. As Pete Dye’s masterpiece, TPC Sawgrass often produces some of the most volatility on the PGA TOUR, and that makes it tough from a betting perspective when looking at PLAYERS Championship odds.
Tournament Recap Through First Three Rounds
You can always expect TPC Sawgrass and the PLAYERS Championship to do some funky things to players compared to the standard PGA TOUR event. While you have courses like Torrey Pines out there which — while fairly boring — tends to always collect a pile of the best players in the world at the top of the leaderboard, you then have your TPC Sawgrass’ of the schedule that can provide us with plenty of surprises.
If you took the man in first place through three rounds off the top of this leaderboard, you might think we were at The Honda Classic. But Scottie Scheffler doesn’t care where he’s playing. The Texan is primed to take back the World No. 1 spot after firing a 65 on Saturday to take a two-shot lead into the final round. The only players within five shots are Min Woo Lee, Cam Davis, Tommy Fleetwood, Aaron Rai, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Chad Ramey … so it’s no surprise that Scheffler is a very heavy favorite to lift the trophy.
Only Davis and Ramey have won from that list, though neither have shown any form as of late. There were big names in the picture heading into Saturday. But they struggled to score in the easiest conditions we’ve ever seen at TPC Sawgrass.
Heavy rain on Friday softened things up. Tom Hoge, like many others, took advantage with a record-breaking 62. But guys like Collin Morikawa (72), Viktor Hovland (70) and Jason Day (70) were stuck in neutral and saw their chances of contending on Sunday likely slip away as they all sit eight shots behind in a tie for 14th.
Final Round PGA TOUR Golf Bets To Consider
Winner: Scottie Scheffler
Best Odds Still Available:
I’ve tried to mostly stay away from tipping heavy favorites to win on Sunday this season. We’ve had a surprising amount of tournaments with big names taking decent leads into the final round, and golf is generally not a sport that adheres to chalky results. But the couple of times I did suggest it were Jon Rahm at The American Express and Scottie Scheffler at the WM Phoenix Open. Those worked out well.
When the best in the game look unflappable, it’s smart to ride with them. And even more so than Rahm, Scheffler has been untouchable for most of the year. His putter continues to be below average, but he is quite easily the best ball striker in the world right now. That is what gets it done around the dangerous TPC Sawgrass, and his incredibly crafty short game continues to get him out of trouble when he misses greens. Scheffler ranks seventh in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, second in Strokes Gained: Approach and seventh in Strokes Gained: Around the Green for the week.
I know this isn’t an attractive number in golf. But Data Golf is giving Scheffler an insane 68 percent chance of taking home the trophy. That is one of the higher numbers you’ll ever see with 18 holes to play considering he only leads by two.
Parlay it with your favorite college basketball game on Sunday or whatever you need to do. But it’s very, very hard for me to see any of the guys close to Scheffler putting up enough of a run in the final round to give him trouble raising his sixth trophy in 13 months.
Top-5 Finish: Sungjae Im
Best Odds Still Available: +230
If there was one player I could see myself suggesting as an outright winner selection besides Scheffler, it would be Sungjae Im at +4000. After opening with a 75 on Thursday, only Tom Hoge has produced a better score over the last two rounds. That has shot Sungjae from cut-watching to having an outside chance to bring home his first premier trophy.
If you have the extra units to root on a massive longshot on Sunday, go for it, but I’m keen on being safer at TPC Sawgrass and banking on Im to tally his second top five of the year. He was playing some fantastic golf over the fall and into this year, but some colder irons dropped him down the board a bit coming into this week. The ball striking has heated back up at Sawgrass, and Im sits no worse than 36th in any Strokes Gained category through three rounds.
When you consider his success at a course like PGA National and his general skillset on Bermuda greens, I like Im’s pedigree here to gain a shot on the guys ahead of him and jumping into the top five. Outside of Fleetwood, there’s very little experience ahead of him, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Im is the runner-up on Sunday.
Top-10 Finish: Jason Day
Best Odds Still Available: +225
I, like most people, was very high on Jason Day coming into the week, and he’s mostly lived up to the hype with three straight solid rounds of 70. Unfortunately for Day, the third-round 70 was not enough to keep up with the pack and dropped him back into a tie for 14th, eight shots behind Scheffler.
That will be too much to overcome for Day on Sunday, but he can still set his sights on a fifth consecutive top 10 as he continues his climb back up the world rankings as a former World No. 1. A former champion at the PLAYERS, Day’s irons and short game are in form this week. He’s 19th in Strokes Gained: Approach and first in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
Much like Im, there’s a ton of inexperience ahead of Day on this leaderboard. He only needs to gain two shots to jump in that top 10, and he should be much more comfortable than many of the guys ahead of him. The group of players in 14th is strong though … he’ll need to not let too many players like Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa jump ahead of him.
PLAYERS Championship Odds
Click on any of the odds below to bet now and compare across sportsbooks in your state to ensure you are maximizing your potential profits before the final round on Sunday. Best of luck betting PLAYERS Championship odds.