HomeHorse Racing11/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Bunbury Cup day

11/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Bunbury Cup day

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Ascot will host a nine race card on Saturday, where it is Bunbury Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Bunbury Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Bunbury Cup

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Race 1. (16:08) Bunbury Brighter Plate 1000m

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Back Me

5 Krysanova (Bet Now: $1.70) on top for me. Daughter of Bondi for Trevor Andrews that has had one trial to get ready for start one, which resulted in a very sharp win over 850m at Belmont last week. She ran fast time in winning by a space and seemingly did it with plenty in hand. She seems a pocket rocket so 1000m on debut should be ideal, drawn soft, happy to be in her corner.

Danger

7 Wiley Girl (Bet Now: $3.40) is a Simon Miller trained filly that is on debut. She had a prep in the Spring with two trials but didn’t race so the stable sent her for a spell. She has come back and trialled last week at Belmont when winning quite nicely. The knock was the time. It was average relative to the morning but you always have to respect this stable and their juveniles.

Long Shot

3 Rubick Lass (Bet Now: $11.00) gets her chance to run a much improved race. She resumed three weeks back at Pinjarra in the Magic Millions where she got back to near last in the run and was never a threat when down the track behind Super Smirk. The depth here, as a whole, is much weaker, and has an inside gate to use to settle much closer in the run.

Race 2. (16:48) Master Plumbers&Gasfit.-Bm72+ 1400m

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Back Me

4 Man Crush (Bet Now: $3.20) on top. He is on the seven day back up after racing over 1200m last Saturday here where he had a suck run behind the speed and was there to win when presented but couldn’t quite finish it off, nabbed late by the very much in form Tadweer. 1400m is a slight query, but should get a good time of it in front and from there, he’ll be hard to run down.

Danger

2 Multinational (Bet Now: $3.80) is an absolute beauty for Neville Parnham. Three weeks between runs since resuming with a win at this trip at Pinjarra. He sat on speed throughout and was there to be beaten but he kept finding under pressure and was too good, just, for Weaponson. Good second up record and although his record at Ascot isn’t flash, it’s hard to knock him, especially with his racing pattern.

Long Shot

5 Big Bada Boom (Bet Now: $18.00) is dangerous if he can get near the speed. He ran in the Multinational race from three weeks back at Pinjarra. He got back in the run and just couldn’t get involved, but was good late in the piece, clocking some of the better late splits of the race. If he can get on speed, where he normally does, he will be a leading contender for sure.

Race 3. (17:28) Thompson Surveying Cons.-Bm62+ 1400m

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Back Me

4 Mack Mack (Bet Now: $4.00) is an each way bet for me here. Dion Luciani trained gelding that took on the older horses when resuming here two weeks ago. The ride was very negative from Carbery I thought and just left the horse with too much to do, but was good late behind Romancing The Rock. Fitter, can settle much closer in the run, he rates highly against this lot.

Danger

6 Rock My Way (Bet Now: $7.00) is dangerous with her best. Was solid enough from off the speed two back over 1800m before coming back to 1400m last time where she got too far back in the run and made up headway but was never really a threat behind Guard The Safe. Think with a more positive ride, she’s going well enough to be a threat.

Long Shot

7 Village Girl (Bet Now: $9.50) is hit and miss but her best is good enough to be around the mark. She had specking when racing here last Wednesday and yes, was helped by an inside gate doing no work, but she still had to take advantage of it and she did, finishing best to win narrowly. More depth here, but once again gets a kind map and Lucy Warwick sticks from last time.

Race 4. (18:05) Bunbury Batteries&Radiat-0Nwly 1400m

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Back Me

5 Cwyer (Bet Now: $2.10) on top for me. Jason Miller trained gelding that resumed three weeks ago at Pinjarra where the market said he was there to win and loomed after getting a suck run but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to Twice A Fortnight. Fitter and up to 1400m with a good second up record, he appeals as one of the hardest to beat.

Danger

1 Dad’s Bigheaded (Bet Now: $7.00) is a key threat. He was kept safe in betting when resuming a couple of weeks back at Pinjarra where he had a good run in transit and tried hard but had to settle for a a second to Garage Days. Stays at 1400m rather than a rise in trip, but the return was good and he finds a winnable race. One of the leading chances.

Long Shot

3 Mystical Man (Bet Now: $31.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. He resumed over 1200m here last Wednesday where he got back in the run and while he was never really a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece behind Excelestial. Has won at 1400m previously and although he might want one more run, the return was good, so not penning him.

Race 5. (18:45) City & Regional Fuels (Bm66+) 2200m

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Back Me

3 Let’sdeal (Bet Now: $1.65) has to be the one to beat. Steve Wolfe trained gelding that is looking to make it three wins on the bounce. Last start came at this track/distance where he was impressive. He looked somewhat gone on the turn but he copped a nasty bump and for some reason, it seemed to kick him into action and he really found under hard riding to win. Has that 2200m run under the belt, so he’ll be better off and faces similar opposition.

Danger

1 Tena Koutou (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) is such a fascinating runner. Adam Durrant trains this guy, who is first up, having not raced since New Years Day here at this trip when down the track behind Mystery Island. He can be hit and miss, but trialled well at Lark Hill to get ready and first up at this trip, you’d have to assume he’s ready to go. Watch the market.

Long Shot

12 Secret Pearl (Bet Now: $71.00) has had a couple of runs at the mile so I think getting to 2000m is ideal. She ran over the mile at Esperance last Sunday where she got back in the run and made up solid headway without threatening behind Frankie Blue Eyes. She brings provincial form, but she has a fab record at the track/distance, so I wouldn’t dismiss her.

Race 6. (19:15) William Barrett&Son Vase-Rs1mw 1500m

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Back Me

9 Eee Pee Cee (Bet Now: $4.40) is the straight bat option. Neville Parnham trained gelding that ran over the mile here at the midweeks last time. He got a pretty good run on speed and was there to win. He tried hard but couldn’t match the finale of Starchienne. Should be able to lob into a beaut spot from the inside gate and I do think that form reads well for a race like this, plus back in trip is a tick.

Danger

4 Romancing The Rock (Bet Now: $4.40) has done little wrong in two runs back from a spell. Both runs have come over 1400m here, running a close up third fresh behind Guard The Safe before winning here two weeks ago, getting the suck run behind the speed before getting an inside split and drove hard late to win. Tricky gate to overcome here but hard to knock the way he’s going.

Long Shot

13 All In Red (Bet Now: $71.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. This mare resumed over 1400m at Geraldton where she was back and wide throughout, and never really got into the contest, but she was far from disgraced in defeat given she is a mare who isn’t normally a fresh horse. Much better second up record and has run well at Ascot before so I wouldn’t totally pen her.

Race 7. (19:50) Bunbury Stakes 1400m

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Back Me

Good race with several key winning chances. I think you have to give 5 Burnya To Survive (Bet Now: $4.40) another chance. The market was telling with him when he resumed two weeks ago. He was even money for the most part but the last 15 minutes, he blew out towards $3, the market suggesting he’d need the run and that’s how it panned out when third to the heavily backed Tadweer. Off that run, to me, he wants 1400m, he gets that here and he does have class.

Danger

8 Creator (Bet Now: $4.00) is flying this time in for the Gangemi camp. Finished best to win over 1200m here fresh before going to the Pinjarra Classic where he was back in the run and spotted them a decent start but was very good late in the piece when a narrow second to Hot Zed. The key to me seems to be riding with a sit. If that can eventuate here and he can launch late again, he’ll take beating.

Long Shot

6 Buzzoom (Bet Now: $14.00) is a big improver here. This mare was a drifter in the market when racing in the Pinjarra Classic but I’d be forgiving of the run. She was back from the wide gate and just couldn’t get involved when down the track behind Hot Zed. Has the inside gate to settle much closer in the run and clearly her best is good enough to be dangerous.

Race 8. (20:25) Bunbury Cup 2100m

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Back Me

I want to give 6 Casino Seventeen (Bet Now: $1.65) another chance. I was really keen on him when racing here two weeks ago but unfortunately he lost a senior rider and got a 2kg apprentice, Taj Dyson, who is a handy rider, but not at the level of Pike/Harvey and IMO that jockey downgrade cost the horse the win when a narrow second to Let’sdeal. Been up a while but really, only has to hold his form to prove hard to beat.

Danger

Fitter and up in trip are two big ticks for 1 Neufbosc (Bet Now: $16.00). He ran a fortnight back in the Detonator over 1800m where he was very one paced when Parnham asked for an effort but was good to the line without threatening behind Marocchino. Gets a much better set up this time around and the depth is nowhere near as strong this time around. Leading contender.

Long Shot

2 True Attraction (Bet Now: $101.00), you’d think, is getting close to racing for his career. It has been a long time since he has threatened to do anything dangerous. Resumed in the Detonator and failed to beat a runner home behind Marocchino. Like him up to 2100m and I think if he could settle closer in the run, that way, I think he can run an improved race.

Race 9. (21:00) Mgib Hcp (Rs1mw) 1200m

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Back Me

13 Lady Tornado (Bet Now: $5.50) on top. Adam Durrant trained mare that has found a real purple patch, looking to make it three wins on the bounce. Lovely ride from Pike saw her win two back at Belmont before coming back to 1100m here where she led throughout and was there to be beaten but found under pressure to fend them off and win. Good test here, but she’s in form, genuine and strikes a winnable race.

Danger

10 Miss Field (Bet Now: $7.50) is capable with her best. Far from disgraced behind Cash Away two back here before having a mini break and racing down the straight at Pinjarra where she wasn’t entirely happy at the course and was close up in defeat behind Madam Kisses. Back up in trip and back around a bend, I think she can run a much improved race.

Long Shot

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 3 Forest War (Bet Now: $19.00). He resumed two weeks back over 1000m here where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out when down the track behind Moi Choux, but was far from disgraced in defeat. Might want one more, but this is a massive drop in grade/depth and he has more upside than most.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 5 Burnya To Survive

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 6 Casino Seventeen

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 4 Mack Mack

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 9, 11, 13

Leg Two: 5

Leg Three: 6

Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 10, 13

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